--- title: "September 2026 market outlook: hydro displaces gas" url: https://frekansenerji.com/en/insights/market-outlook-september-2026/ lang: en description: "The average PTF held at its year-earlier level of 2,742 TL/MWh in September, but reservoir hydro displaced gas and the gap between evening and midday prices widened. We summarise the month’s figures and what they mean for solar, wind and battery investors." datePublished: 2026-10-07 dateModified: 2026-10-07 --- # September 2026 market outlook: hydro displaces gas The average PTF held at its year-earlier level of 2,742 TL/MWh in September, but reservoir hydro displaced gas and the gap between evening and midday prices widened. We summarise the month’s figures and what they mean for solar, wind and battery investors. Market Outlook 14 min read · October 7, 2026 ## Same price, different mix The day-ahead market clearing price (PTF) averaged 2,742.43 TL/MWh in September 2026: 5.7% below August and only 0.5% above September 2025. In dollars the picture is different: the average was 56.6 $/MWh, 14.6% lower than a year earlier. In euros it was 49.0 €/MWh, against 56.5 €/MWh a year ago. The flat lira price hides a large shift underneath. Output from reservoir hydro was 2.8 times its level a year earlier, and gas fell from 24.6% to 10.6% of licensed generation. Midday hours stayed cheap while the evening price rose, widening the gap within the day. This report summarises the month’s figures, the imbalance picture for August, the latest month with settlement data, and what they mean for solar, wind and battery investors. 2,742 TL/MWh Average PTF, September 2026 56.6 $/MWh Dollar equivalent; 66.2 in September 2025 52.1% Renewables’ share of licensed generation; 35.0% in September 2025 1,608 TL/MWh Average PTF gap between evening (18–22) and midday (10–16) ## Thirteen months of prices: lira and dollar September stayed within the recovery that began in July. In the first half of 2026 cheap supply had pushed the PTF to very low levels: the April average was 921 TL/MWh and the May average 591 TL/MWh. Since July the monthly average has moved in a 2,700–2,900 TL/MWh band. Figure 1 Monthly average PTF, lira and dollar ![Frekans Enerji](/_ds/frekans-design-system-4d9ac81c-c3eb-4c27-a344-ef6c4ece4cc2/assets/logos/frekans-full-blue.svg) TL/MWh $/MWh Sep 2025 ₺2,729 $66.2 Oct ₺2,740 $65.7 Nov ₺2,784 $66.1 Dec ₺2,973 $69.8 Jan 2026 ₺2,895 $67.2 Feb ₺2,078 $47.7 Mar ₺1,620 $36.8 Apr ₺921 $20.7 May ₺591 $13.1 Jun ₺1,240 $26.9 Jul ₺2,700 $57.6 Aug ₺2,908 $61.0 Sep ₺2,742 $56.6 Arithmetic average of hourly prices; dollar values are EPİAŞ’s hourly prices converted at the Central Bank (CBRT) rate. Each currency is scaled to its own maximum, so bars compare months within a currency. Source: EPİAŞ Transparency Platform. In dollar terms the recovery is weaker. The PTF was 66.2 $/MWh in September 2025, fell as low as 13.1 $/MWh in May 2026, recovered to 61.0 $/MWh in August and was 56.6 $/MWh in September. The lira price is unchanged on a year ago while the dollar price is 14.6% lower because the lira value of the dollar rose by about 18% over the same period. For an investor carrying dollar-denominated debt or equipment costs, this is the series that matters. Within the month the price moved across a wide range. On Sunday 20 September the PTF was zero for four hours between 10:00 and 14:00. On 12, 21 and 24 September a total of seven hours cleared at the 4,500 TL/MWh price cap. Daily averages ranged from 1,424 TL/MWh on Sunday 27 September to 3,328 TL/MWh on 1 September. ## How prices are distributed An average says nothing about how the hours are spread. In September 2025, 52.6% of hours fell between 3,000 and 3,500 TL/MWh, with the price cap at 3,400 TL/MWh. When the cap rose to 4,500 TL/MWh on 4 April 2026, the distribution opened upwards: in September 2026, 23.2% of hours cleared above 3,500 TL/MWh. At the low end, 6.1% of hours were below 1,000 TL/MWh, against 6.5% a year earlier and 1.4% two years earlier. Figure 2 Distribution of hourly PTF, September ![Frekans Enerji](/_ds/frekans-design-system-4d9ac81c-c3eb-4c27-a344-ef6c4ece4cc2/assets/logos/frekans-full-blue.svg) 2024 2025 2026 0 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0–500 0.6% 3.8% 3.6% 500–1,000 0.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1,000–1,500 4.6% 3.8% 3.9% 1,500–2,000 11.7% 7.5% 8.6% 2,000–2,500 37.4% 4.7% 19.9% 2,500–3,000 36.0% 25.0% 14.9% 3,000–3,500 9.0% 52.6% 23.5% 3,500–4,000 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 4,000–4,500 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 4,500 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Share of hours, %; TL/MWh ranges. “4,500” is hours at the price cap. Source: EPİAŞ Transparency Platform. The first nine months make 2026 stand out more clearly. There were 4 zero-price hours in 2024 and 41 in 2025, but 395 in 2026, of which 391 came between February and June. Hours above twice the monthly average, absent in the first nine months of 2024 and 2025, reached 404 in 2026: with spring averages so low, evening hours sat far above them. Figure 3 Cumulative zero-price hours through the year ![Frekans Enerji](/_ds/frekans-design-system-4d9ac81c-c3eb-4c27-a344-ef6c4ece4cc2/assets/logos/frekans-full-blue.svg) 2024 2025 2026 0 100 200 300 400 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 2024 2025 2026 Cumulative number of hours with a zero PTF since January. Source: EPİAŞ Transparency Platform. At the top end the picture is reversed. The price cap has changed from period to period: 2,700 TL/MWh in the first half of 2024, 3,000 from 1 July 2024, 3,400 from 5 April 2025 and 4,500 since 4 April 2026. Counting each hour against the cap in force that day, the PTF cleared at the cap in 736 hours of January–September 2024, 686 in 2025 and 369 in 2026. Of the 2026 hours, 315 came before the cap rose in April; since then only 54 hours in six months have hit it, against 157 in July 2025 alone. With the higher cap, scarcity hours are priced in the 3,500–4,500 TL/MWh range instead of being clipped at the limit; the upper tail in the distribution chart is the result. Figure 4 Cumulative hours at the price cap through the year ![Frekans Enerji](/_ds/frekans-design-system-4d9ac81c-c3eb-4c27-a344-ef6c4ece4cc2/assets/logos/frekans-full-blue.svg) 2024 2025 2026 0 200 400 600 800 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep Cumulative number of hours since January in which the PTF cleared at the price cap in force that day. Price cap: 2,700 TL/MWh (until 30 June 2024), 3,000 (1 July 2024 – 4 April 2025), 3,400 (5 April 2025 – 3 April 2026), 4,500 (since 4 April 2026). Source: EPİAŞ Transparency Platform; EPDK Board Decisions 12716, 13423 and 14459. Table 1 January–September comparison | January–September | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Average PTF (TL/MWh) | 2,175 | 2,548 | 1,969 | | Zero-price hours | 4 | 41 | 395 | | Hours below 500 TL/MWh | 252 | 275 | 1,613 | | Hours above twice the monthly average | 0 | 0 | 404 | | Hours at the price cap | 736 | 686 | 369 | | Average daily price spread (TL/MWh) | 1,532 | 1,904 | 2,841 | The daily price spread is the gap between the highest and lowest hourly PTF of each day. ## Water in, gas out Licensed plants generated 27.7 TWh in September, 4.2% more than a year earlier. The total changed little, but the order of sources did. Reservoir hydro became the largest source at 7.0 TWh, against 2.5 TWh a year earlier. Gas-fired output fell from 6.5 TWh to 2.9 TWh, less than half. Table 2 Generation by source, licensed plants, September | Source | 2026 (TWh) | Share | 2025 (TWh) | Share | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Reservoir hydro | 6.98 | 25.2% | 2.53 | 9.5% | | Imported coal | 6.29 | 22.7% | 6.63 | 25.0% | | Domestic coal | 3.95 | 14.3% | 3.98 | 15.0% | | Wind | 3.77 | 13.6% | 3.77 | 14.2% | | Natural gas | 2.92 | 10.6% | 6.54 | 24.6% | | Run-of-river hydro | 1.25 | 4.5% | 0.72 | 2.7% | | Solar (licensed) | 0.94 | 3.4% | 0.79 | 3.0% | | Geothermal, biomass and other | 1.57 | 5.7% | 1.61 | 6.1% | | Total | 27.67 | 100% | 26.57 | 100% | Real-time generation data covers licensed plants only; unlicensed generation, mostly solar, is not included. Realised generation including unlicensed plants is published a month later; the full picture for August is in the “August settlement” section below. The retreat of gas did not lower the average price, because the PTF is the price of the most expensive megawatt needed to meet demand in each hour. At the latest tariff published by BOTAŞ, the state gas company (4 April 2026; 1.692 TL/kWh), and 50–55% efficiency, a gas plant’s fuel cost is 3,080–3,380 TL/MWh. In September the average PTF between 18:00 and 21:00 was 3,875 TL/MWh. Evening prices clearing above this cost show that the last plant dispatched at the peak is still gas-fired. Illustrative calculation. Fuel cost is BOTAŞ’s tariff for power generation divided by plant efficiency; operating and network charges are excluded. Trade changed direction too. Türkiye was a net exporter of 618 GWh in September, against 76 GWh of net imports a year earlier. Real-time consumption rose 3.4% to 30.6 TWh. ## Cheap midday, expensive evening The daily profile shows the year’s clearest change. Dividing each hour’s average by the monthly average sharpens the shape: in September 2026 the average PTF at 12:00 was 47% of the monthly average and at 19:00 it was 152%. In 2024 the same hours were at 62% and 123%. The midday trough had already deepened in 2025 (45%); what is new in 2026 is the higher evening peak. Figure 5 Hourly PTF relative to the monthly average (September) ![Frekans Enerji](/_ds/frekans-design-system-4d9ac81c-c3eb-4c27-a344-ef6c4ece4cc2/assets/logos/frekans-full-blue.svg) 2024 2025 2026 0 50 100 150 200 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 23 Average PTF of each hour ÷ monthly average PTF, %. 100 is the monthly average. Source: EPİAŞ Transparency Platform. In September the average PTF was 2,068 TL/MWh between 10:00 and 16:00 and 3,676 TL/MWh between 18:00 and 22:00: a gap of 1,608 TL/MWh, against 1,280 TL/MWh in September 2025. The gap between each day’s highest and lowest PTF averaged 2,965 TL/MWh. Over the first nine months this daily spread averaged 2,841 TL/MWh, 49% above 2025 and 85% above 2024, and it exceeded the same month of 2025 in every month of 2026. Figure 6 Daily price spread, 7-day moving average ![Frekans Enerji](/_ds/frekans-design-system-4d9ac81c-c3eb-4c27-a344-ef6c4ece4cc2/assets/logos/frekans-full-blue.svg) 2024 2025 2026 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 2024 2025 2026 TL/MWh. Gap between the highest and lowest hourly PTF of each day, 7-day moving average. Source: EPİAŞ Transparency Platform. > The average price is where it was a year ago; what changed is its shape through the day. ## What it means for assets Weighting the hourly PTF by licensed solar output gives an average captured price of 2,199 TL/MWh for a solar plant in September: 80.2% of the average PTF. Over thirteen months this ratio fell to 33% in April and 22% in May, then returned to a 74–81% range from July. For wind it stayed within 90–110% over the same period; because wind also produces in the evening, it is not affected by the change in the price shape. Figure 7 Captured price as a share of the average PTF ![Frekans Enerji](/_ds/frekans-design-system-4d9ac81c-c3eb-4c27-a344-ef6c4ece4cc2/assets/logos/frekans-full-blue.svg) Solar Wind Sep 2025 82.7% 98.3% Oct 80.1% 96.2% Nov 82.6% 96.4% Dec 96.3% 98.1% Jan 2026 97.8% 97.2% Feb 80.1% 93.0% Mar 74.3% 89.6% Apr 33.4% 92.3% May 21.8% 103.1% Jun 44.6% 110.4% Jul 74.2% 97.9% Aug 81.1% 98.8% Sep 80.2% 99.4% %, hourly PTF weighted by licensed solar and wind output ÷ average PTF. Source: EPİAŞ Transparency Platform, real-time generation. For a battery the measure is the gap between the day’s expensive and cheap hours. The gap between the two most expensive and the two cheapest hours of the day averaged 2,706 TL/MWh in September, against 1,950 TL/MWh a year earlier. A 1 MW / 2 MWh battery cycling once a day in the day-ahead market (GÖP) alone would have earned a gross margin of about 148 thousand TL/MW in the month, against 102 thousand TL/MW in September 2025. Table 3 Asset indicators | Indicator | Sep 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Average PTF (TL/MWh) | 2,742 | 2,908 | 2,729 | | Average PTF ($/MWh) | 56.6 | 61.0 | 66.2 | | Solar captured price (TL/MWh) | 2,199 | 2,359 | 2,257 | | Wind captured price (TL/MWh) | 2,725 | 2,873 | 2,684 | | Daily highest – lowest PTF (TL/MWh) | 2,965 | 2,900 | 2,198 | | Top 2 hours – bottom 2 hours (TL/MWh) | 2,706 | 2,700 | 1,950 | | 1 MW / 2 MWh battery, GÖP gross margin (thousand TL/MW·month) | 148 | 151 | 102 | Illustrative calculation. Battery margin: charge in the two cheapest hours and discharge in the two most expensive each day, 85% round-trip efficiency; imbalance, operating and network charges excluded. ## Ancillary services and imbalance prices The secondary frequency control (SFK) capacity price averaged 2,937 TL/MW·h in September, against 1,632 TL/MW·h a year earlier. A plant providing 1 MW of reserve in every hour of the month would have received about 2.11 million TL in capacity payments. In primary frequency control (PFK) the price was 827 TL/MW·h, close to a year earlier. That is about 14 times the battery margin, but the pool is small: in September the average hourly SFK reserve was 1,020 MW and the PFK reserve 430 MW. With reserve needs fixed, every new participant pushes the price down. SFK revenue assumes 1 MW of reserve paid at the capacity price in every hour of the month; energy payments, performance conditions and outages excluded. > In SFK, 1 MW shows 14 times the revenue of GÖP arbitrage; but the pool is around 1,000 MW. In balancing, the system was in surplus more often: it was long in 312 hours of September and short in 378, against 228 and 472 a year earlier. Up-regulation instructions (YAL) totalled 274 GWh, 36% below a year earlier, and down-regulation instructions (YAT) 219 GWh, 14% above. The system marginal price (SMF), the balancing market price, averaged 2,507 TL/MWh, 235 TL/MWh below the PTF. In the median hour the SMF equals the PTF, but the tails are widening. In September 2026 the SMF was at least 1,700 TL/MWh below the PTF in the lowest 10% of hours and at least 912 TL/MWh above it in the highest 10%. A year earlier these thresholds were −995 and +588 TL/MWh. At the imbalance prices published by EPİAŞ, a surplus MWh cost 588 TL/MWh against the PTF in the average hour and a short MWh 411 TL/MWh, against 324 and 258 TL/MWh in September 2025. Figure 8 Distribution of SMF − PTF ![Frekans Enerji](/_ds/frekans-design-system-4d9ac81c-c3eb-4c27-a344-ef6c4ece4cc2/assets/logos/frekans-full-blue.svg) Median 80% of hours (P10–P90) \-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 Sep 2025 Nov Jan 2026 Mar May Jul Sep Median TL/MWh. 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the hourly SMF − PTF gap each month. Source: EPİAŞ Transparency Platform. ## August settlement Imbalance volumes, realised generation and unlicensed generation are published with settlement, about a month later. This section covers August, the latest month with complete data; September will follow in next month’s report. Total system imbalance in August was 1.77 TWh: 0.80 TWh positive and 0.97 TWh negative. The extra cost that participants bore against the PTF because of these imbalances was 1.05 billion TL. The volume-weighted average cost was 591.6 TL/MWh, 77% above a year earlier and 20% of the average PTF. Table 4 Volume-weighted imbalance cost | | Aug 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Average cost (TL/MWh) | 591.6 | 616.9 | 334.7 | | Positive imbalance (TL/MWh) | 587.7 | 702.7 | 444.3 | | Negative imbalance (TL/MWh) | 594.8 | 537.9 | 263.0 | | Positive / negative volume (TWh) | 0.80 / 0.97 | 0.93 / 1.01 | 0.75 / 1.14 | | Total cost (million TL) | 1,051.6 | 1,194.0 | 631.3 | | Share of average PTF | 20.3% | 22.8% | 11.4% | Positive imbalance cost = PTF − positive imbalance price; negative imbalance cost = negative imbalance price − PTF. Hourly costs are weighted by the system-wide imbalance volumes published by EPİAŞ. The heat map shows where in the month the cost was concentrated. By hour, the highest averages were at 15:00 (751 TL/MWh) and 18:00 (711 TL/MWh), the lowest at 05:00–06:00 (412–423 TL/MWh). Among days of the week Saturday stands out at 735 TL/MWh, against 420 TL/MWh on Wednesday. The median hourly cost was 479 TL/MWh, and it exceeded 1,086 TL/MWh in 10% of hours. Positive imbalance is skewed: its median is 108 TL/MWh, but the costliest 10% of hours are above 1,444 TL/MWh. Figure 9 Hourly average imbalance cost, August 2026 ![Frekans Enerji](/_ds/frekans-design-system-4d9ac81c-c3eb-4c27-a344-ef6c4ece4cc2/assets/logos/frekans-full-blue.svg) 02,138TL/MWh 0003060912151821 1 Sat 2 Sun 3 Mon 4 Tue 5 Wed 6 Thu 7 Fri 8 Sat 9 Sun 10 Mon 11 Tue 12 Wed 13 Thu 14 Fri 15 Sat 16 Sun 17 Mon 18 Tue 19 Wed 20 Thu 21 Fri 22 Sat 23 Sun 24 Mon 25 Tue 26 Wed 27 Thu 28 Fri 29 Sat 30 Sun 31 Mon TL/MWh, volume-weighted hourly average of positive and negative imbalance costs; the colour scale runs from zero to the month’s highest hourly value. Source: EPİAŞ Transparency Platform. Realised generation (UEVM, the settlement-based injection data) includes unlicensed plants and completes the picture. Solar’s share of generation in August was 14.1%, about four times the 3.5% visible in real-time data. Of solar output, 3.95 TWh came from unlicensed plants; hourly solar output peaked at 20,552 MWh (August 2025: 17,903 MWh). Reservoir hydro’s share rose from 11.3% to 22.6% while gas fell from 24.3% to 10.8%. Table 5 Realised generation (UEVM), August | Source | 2026 (TWh) | Share | 2025 (TWh) | Share | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Reservoir hydro | 7.66 | 22.6% | 3.76 | 11.3% | | Imported coal | 6.35 | 18.7% | 6.79 | 20.4% | | Wind | 4.90 | 14.4% | 4.74 | 14.2% | | Solar (licensed and unlicensed) | 4.78 | 14.1% | 4.11 | 12.3% | | Domestic coal | 3.90 | 11.5% | 3.68 | 11.0% | | Natural gas | 3.66 | 10.8% | 8.09 | 24.3% | | Run-of-river hydro | 1.36 | 4.0% | 0.72 | 2.2% | | Geothermal, biomass and other | 1.36 | 4.0% | 1.44 | 4.3% | | Total | 33.96 | 100% | 33.33 | 100% | Weighted by the output profile of all solar plants, the captured price in August was 2,274 TL/MWh, 78.2% of the average PTF; the licensed profile alone gave 81.1%. The difference comes from unlicensed output being more concentrated in the midday hours, when prices are lowest. A year earlier the same ratio was 84.7%. The realised unit cost of YEKDEM, Türkiye’s renewable support mechanism, has also been published for August: 395.30 TL/MWh, after 486.31 TL/MWh in July. Both months came in far above EPDK’s April forecast: 2.6 times in July and 1.8 times in August. In a fixed-price supply contract that priced YEKDEM at the forecast, the difference comes straight out of the margin. Table 6 YEKDEM unit cost | Month | EPDK forecast, 2026 (TL/MWh) | Realised, 2026 (TL/MWh) | Realised, 2025 (TL/MWh) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | July | 189.15 | 486.31 | 266.58 | | August | 213.89 | 395.30 | 285.80 | ## Looking ahead to October The average PTF over the first seven days of October was 2,341 TL/MWh; on the weekend of 3–4 October the daily average fell to around 1,600 TL/MWh. On the electricity futures market (VEP), the daily indicative price of the October baseload contract stayed at 2,858.65 TL/MWh throughout September. Table 7 VEP baseload contracts and dollar equivalent, 30 September 2026 | Delivery | VEP indicative price (₺/MWh) | USD/TRY future (VİOP) | Dollar equivalent ($/MWh) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | November 2026 | 3,169.30 | 51.483 | 61.6 | | December 2026 | 3,384.38 | 52.801 | 64.1 | | January 2027 | 3,626.99 | 54.034 | 67.1 | | February 2027 | 2,603.75 | 55.315 | 47.1 | | March 2027 | 2,030.07 | 56.786 | 35.7 | | April 2027 | 1,105.27 | 57.986 | 19.1 | | Year 2027 | 3,122.96 | 61.629 | 50.7 | The USD/TRY rate is the 30 September 2026 settlement price of the USDTRY future on Borsa İstanbul’s derivatives market (VİOP) expiring on the last business day of the delivery month; for 2027 the average of the January–December 2027 contracts is used. The indicative prices of the November and December electricity contracts did not change during September, pointing to limited trading on VEP. USD/TRY futures, by contrast, are deep: the November contract traded 4.0 billion TL on 30 September. The curve says two things. Prices are expected to rise to 3,200–3,600 TL/MWh in the winter months. The April 2027 contract at 1,105 TL/MWh shows the market pricing another spring of cheap supply, similar to 2026. USD/TRY futures price the same months between 51.48 (November 2026) and 57.99 (April 2027). At these rates VEP prices are worth 62–67 $/MWh in the winter months, 19 $/MWh in April 2027 and 51 $/MWh on average for 2027. September’s realised average was 56.6 $/MWh. In dollar terms, the market expects prices above September’s level for the winter and below it for 2027 as a whole. Cost references did not change in September: the GÖP price cap has been 4,500 TL/MWh since 4 April 2026, and the YEKDEM cost forecast EPDK updated in April is 330.66 TL/MWh for September and 332.82 TL/MWh for October. During the month EPDK granted Kuvvet Enerji a 49-year generation licence for a solar-plus-storage project in Karaçoban, Erzurum (Board Decision 14842-12), and the decision on the transmission surcharge for 2027 (14864) was published in the Official Gazette on 16 September. ## For investors The lesson of September is that the average price is not enough. The PTF is unchanged in lira on a year ago but 15% lower in dollars; a solar plant captured 80% of the average, and the cost of imbalance rose 77% in a year. The same average price means very different revenue for two assets with different output profiles and forecast quality. The widening gap between evening and midday raises the value of storage added to solar, and SFK prices show a larger revenue line for batteries than GÖP. Whether either lasts will depend on hydrology, the battery capacity that gets built and reserve needs. We will track these variables in this report every month. In summary 01 The average PTF was 2,742.43 TL/MWh in September, unchanged on September 2025; in dollars it fell 14.6% to 56.6 $/MWh. 02 Reservoir hydro output was 2.8 times its level a year earlier, and gas fell from 24.6% to 10.6% of licensed generation. 03 The evening peak rose to 152% of the monthly average; over the first nine months the daily price spread was 49% above 2025, and solar captured 80% of the average price. 04 In August the volume-weighted imbalance cost was 591.6 TL/MWh, 77% above a year earlier; the total extra cost was 1.05 billion TL. 05 Realised YEKDEM unit costs were 1.8–2.6 times EPDK’s forecast in July and August; converted at USD/TRY futures, VEP indicative prices point to 62–67 $/MWh for the winter and 51 $/MWh for 2027. At Frekans we calculate these indicators every month, plant by plant, for the plants we manage and update bidding and storage strategy accordingly. For projects at the investment stage we build the revenue model not on the average price but on the hourly price shape, the dollar equivalent and the cost of imbalance. Sources EPİAŞ Transparency Platform — PTF (with $ and € equivalents), SMF, positive and negative imbalance prices, intraday weighted average price, real-time generation and consumption, PFK and SFK prices and amounts, YAL and YAT instructions (January 2024 – September 2026) EPİAŞ Transparency Platform — settlement data: imbalance volumes, realised generation (UEVM), unlicensed generation and YEKDEM unit cost (July–August 2025 and 2026) EPİAŞ Transparency Platform — VEP daily indicative prices (August–September 2026) Borsa İstanbul VİOP end-of-day data, 30 September 2026 — USDTRY futures settlement prices BOTAŞ natural gas wholesale tariff effective 4 April 2026 EPDK, 2026 YEKDEM cost revision (4 April 2026); Board Decisions 14842-12 (3 September 2026) and 14864 (10 September 2026, Official Gazette 16 September 2026) Amendment to the Balancing and Settlement Regulation (Official Gazette, 29 December 2025, no. 33122): imbalance coefficients [All insights](https://frekansenerji.com/en/insights/) [Talk to our team](https://frekansenerji.com/en/contact/) Newsletter ## Market analysis in your inbox Clearing prices, regulatory changes and storage economics. 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